🇪🇺 European stocks
Primary hunting ground per mandate — ranked 1, 2, 3 below
1. Aker ASA
AKER.OL · Oslo · Norwegian industrial holding co
Røkke-controlled holding company: stakes in Aker BP (oil & gas), Aker Solutions, Cognite (AI/industrial software, sold to Schneider Electric), Aker Horizons, real estate.
NOK 1,429
Disclosed NAV/sh (Q2)
28%→20%
Discount trend, Q1→Q2
Bear case: NAV is mostly Aker BP — a commodity-cyclical, moat-free oil & gas business. Conglomerate discount can persist indefinitely (value trap risk); private-asset marks (Cognite pre-sale, Aker Horizons) may be optimistic.
Norway-listed — Slovak >1yr personal capital-gains exemption should apply in principle, but Norwegian dividend withholding tax + treaty relief mechanics are unverified here — confirm with an advisor.
2. Bayer AG
BAYN.DE · Xetra · Pharma / Crop Science / Consumer Health
Global pharma + agchem conglomerate; equity story has been dominated by Roundup/glyphosate litigation since the 2018 Monsanto deal.
€35.5
Price (Xetra, Aug 2026)
€48.5
Avg analyst target (+36%)
€60
GuruFocus GF Value (+69%, wide range)
€9.1–9.6bn
2026E EBITDA guide
Bear case: Litigation not fully closed — plaintiffs contesting the $7.25bn settlement venue as of June 2026. ~€5bn litigation cash outflow in 2026. Heavy Monsanto-deal net debt; glyphosate generic pricing pressure; Xarelto patent cliff must be offset by pipeline (Nubeqa, Kerendia).
Germany-listed EU equity — same Slovak >1yr exemption logic as Aker; verify specific conditions before relying on it.
3. Novo Nordisk
NOVO-B.CO · Copenhagen · GLP-1 pharma leader
Global leader in GLP-1 diabetes/obesity drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy); stock down ~70%+ from 2024 peak on share loss to Eli Lilly.
~13–14x
Fwd P/E vs 5yr avg ~27x
~40% share
GLP-1 mkt share vs Lilly's 60%
Bear case: This may be moat erosion, not just sentiment — Lilly's oral orforglipron threatens first-mover edge; CagriSema shareholder-fraud suit ongoing; management itself guided a 2026 sales/profit decline. Reports Aug 5 — binary event before the stock can be sized comfortably.
Denmark-listed EU equity — same exemption logic applies in principle; confirm specifics.
🌎 US / Global
Secondary bucket per mandate — one name, low conviction
4. UnitedHealth Group
UNH · NYSE · Managed care / Optum
Largest US health insurer plus Optum (PBM/health services). 2025–26 was its worst stretch on record: guidance cuts, medical-cost-ratio blowup, DOJ criminal probe into Medicare Advantage billing.
$475
Consensus target (27 analysts, +15%)
$500–625
Bull DCF/GF Value range (low confidence)
Bear case: Stock already rallied on the Q2 beat/raised guidance — much of the "cheap on overhang" opportunity has closed. DOJ criminal investigation is unresolved and could bring fines, charges, or MA program restrictions — a real tail risk for a policy-dependent business. Consensus margin of safety (~15%) is modest, not a genuine deep-value gap right now.
US-listed — Slovak >1yr exemption logic generally issuer-domicile-agnostic, but 15% US dividend withholding under the US–Slovak treaty applies separately to any dividends received. Verify specifics.