Buffett/Munger-style scan: durable moat, honest management, low risk, large margin of safety. European market first, US/Global second. Overlooked mispricings only — not screener-cheap.
3 names cleared the bar this week. All are European — no US/Global idea qualified (see note below).
Global leader in outsourced customer experience (CX/BPO) delivery — scale, multilingual footprint across 90+ countries, and switching costs from embedded client operations form the moat. Market is pricing the stock as if AI voice agents make the business obsolete; FY26 guidance is flat-to-+2% like-for-like revenue with ~15% EBITA margin, and TEP is repositioning around AI-augmented (not AI-replaced) delivery.
Margin of safety (est.)
Roughly 30–40%+ vs. a conservatively normalized value, assuming further (not zero) margin erosion — a high-single-digit P/E and mid-teens FCF yield for a still-profitable global leader is a wide cushion if the AI-obsolescence thesis is overstated.
Bear case
AI disruption fear could simply be correct — if voice/CX volumes structurally shrink faster than management admits, the low multiple is a value trap, not a bargain. Majorel-deal leverage adds risk if EBITDA erodes further; French labor law limits restructuring speed. Stock is already +62% off its 52-week low (€43.65), so some of the "crisis" pricing has already closed.
Holding note: France withholds dividend tax at source (treaty-reduced rate for Slovak residents not verified here — confirm current France–Slovakia treaty rate). With an 8%+ yield, dividend tax drag matters regardless of personal vs. company wrapper; Slovak >1yr capital-gains exemption (if still current) mainly benefits price appreciation, not the yield component.
Owns Johnnie Walker, Guinness, Smirnoff, Captain Morgan, Tanqueray — a genuine brand moat with a long history of pricing power. Down ~50% over three years on GLP-1 "moderation" fears, US destocking, tariff noise, and a dividend cut that spooked income holders. New CEO (ex-Tesco) has launched a $1bn three-year cost-savings and portfolio-pruning plan.
Margin of safety (est.)
Moderate-to-large if the brand moat and pricing power are structurally intact; smaller if volume decline proves permanent rather than cyclical. Multiple independent screens (Morningstar 4-star, GuruFocus GF Value) converge on meaningful undervaluation.
Bear case
The "temporary" overhang could be structural — younger cohorts drinking less, GLP-1 adoption curve still early — meaning the old growth algorithm and premium multiple may never return. A second dividend cut is plausible and not obviously priced in by investors still chasing the yield.
Holding note: UK shares generally carry no UK dividend withholding tax, making this relatively clean to hold personally. Slovak >1yr capital-gains exemption (if still current) would apply to price gains — confirm current rule before sizing.
Berlusconi-family-controlled broadcaster (Mediaset Italy, Mediaset España) that secured a 75.6% stake in ProSiebenSat.1 (closed Sept 2025), creating Europe's largest commercial broadcasting group and targeting ~€419m of EBIT synergies by year four. Market still appears to price it as a standalone declining linear-TV asset rather than a consolidator gaining scale and ad-buying leverage across Italy, Spain and Germany. This is a catalyst/consolidation play, not a classic wide-moat compounder.
Margin of safety (est.)
Automated DCF-fair-value screens flag 40–50% "undervaluation" — treat these mechanical outputs skeptically. The more defensible case rests on synergy delivery and consolidation leverage, not a screener discount; size accordingly smaller than the headline discount implies.
Bear case
Linear TV and broadcast advertising are in secular decline across all three core markets. The ProSieben deal added leverage right as the core business needs reinvestment. Dual-class, family-control structure (Berlusconi heirs) is a real governance red flag for capital-allocation discipline and minority treatment — underwrite the numbers, don't just trust management here.
Holding note: Dutch-domiciled NV typically applies dividend withholding tax (~15% headline, treaty-reduced) — confirm Slovak treaty relief and current 1-year CGT exemption status. Governance risk argues for a smaller position regardless of tax treatment.