Weekly Value Screen

Deep value, wide moat, priced for pessimism

Three candidates cleared the bar this week — two Europe-domiciled, one US. Ranked by conviction. Bear cases included, not buried.

Run date: 24 Aug 2026 Universe: Europe-first, then US/Global Screen type: Buffett/Munger — moat, management, margin of safety
Europe

EU / European-listed candidates

Ranked #1 and #2 by conviction. Both idiosyncratic mispricings — sector sentiment and holding-company structure — rather than broad-market bargains.

#1

British American Tobacco

LSE: BATS · NYSE ADR: BTI
High conviction

Global combustible + reduced-risk nicotine products — Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall, plus fast-scaling Vuse (vapor) and Velo (pouches).

Why mispriced ESG-driven capital flight and a "melting cigarette" narrative have kept the multiple depressed even as new-category revenue scales at high margin and deleveraging is ahead of schedule — the market is pricing terminal decline faster than the cash flows are actually declining.
~12.1x
Fwd P/E
5.6–5.9%
Div. yield
2.0–2.5x
Net debt/EBITDA target, YE26
+85%
H1'26 FCF growth (£2,285m)
Bear case Combustible volume declines could outrun pricing power; US menthol-ban and litigation tail risk remain live; new categories (vapor/pouches) may not scale to high-teens group margins fast enough to offset cigarette erosion. Regulatory moat cuts both ways — it also caps growth optionality.
Margin of safety: Moderate-high — cash machine priced near ~8x normalized FCF vs. ~15–16x staples peer average Holding note: UK plc, no UK dividend WHT generally; ADR route may differ — confirm mechanics before buying. Slovak >1yr personal CGT exemption likely applies to the share gain — verify specifics with an advisor
#2

Exor N.V.

Euronext Amsterdam: EXO
High conviction

Agnelli family holding company — stakes in Ferrari, Stellantis, CNH Industrial, Philips, plus Lingotto asset management, reinsurance, and Juventus.

Why mispriced Stellantis's operational troubles have spooked the whole portfolio, blowing the NAV discount out to roughly double its historical average — but the discount is being applied on top of holdings whose own share prices already reflect that cyclicality. Effectively a double discount.
€70.10
Share price
€164.4
NAV/share (Mar '26)
~57%
Discount to NAV
€3.5bn+
Deployable cash
Bear case The discount may be structural, not cyclical — family control and historically low payouts have kept it wide for years. NAV itself is volatile and auto-heavy; further Stellantis/Ferrari weakness lowers the anchor, not just the discount. Buybacks — the main historical lever for narrowing the gap — are currently paused ("cash is king").
Margin of safety: Large on paper (~57% discount) but low-quality — depends on discount narrowing, not just NAV growth Holding note: Dutch NV — dividend WHT typically ~15%, treaty-creditable. Slovak >1yr personal CGT exemption likely applies to the equity gain — confirm treaty withholding treatment with an advisor
US / Global

US-listed candidate — flagged as lower conviction

Statistically the cheapest name on the list. Included for completeness, not conviction — the numbers are better than the business quality.

#3

Conagra Brands

NYSE: CAG
Watch-item, not core

US packaged food — Birds Eye, Slim Jim, Marie Callender's, Healthy Choice.

Why mispriced (bull argument) GLP-1 volume fears plus a just-executed 50% dividend cut have pushed sentiment past what current FCF generation implies — the stock now trades at a statistical extreme versus staples peers.
7.65x
P/E
~13.7%
FCF yield
3.83x
Net debt/EBITDA
0.89
Current ratio
Bear case — why this is ranked last This is closer to a Graham cigar-butt than a Buffett-quality compounder. Leverage near 4x with a sub-1 current ratio limits flexibility; private-label share loss and GLP-1-driven volume erosion look structural, not sentiment-driven; the dividend was already cut once and could be cut again if EBITDA keeps slipping. Packaged-food brand loyalty is a much weaker moat than tobacco's regulatory/addiction-based pricing power. Does not clearly clear a genuine high-conviction bar — treat as a monitor, not a buy signal.
Margin of safety: Deep on paper, low quality — price reflects real balance-sheet and volume risk, not just overreaction Holding note: US stock — Slovak holders face US dividend WHT (~15% w/ W-8BEN), creditable against Slovak tax. Capital gain likely eligible for Slovak >1yr personal exemption — confirm specifics
Context
Market regime note European indices (STOXX 600) are trading near record highs in 2026, thinning out broad-market bargains — which is why this week's ideas are idiosyncratic (sector sentiment on tobacco, holding-company structure on Exor) rather than screen-wide cheapness. US rates remain a headwind for leveraged balance sheets like Conagra's, reinforcing the caution on that name specifically.